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DOI码：10.1080/00036846.2019.1619025
发表刊物：Applied Economics
关键字：Housing price; Financial risk; Spatial diffusion; Investment
摘要：Financial risk derived from housing price fluctuations in China garnered much public concern recently. Based on the theoretical analyses of the transmission of financial risk from housing price fluctuations, this paper establishes panel spatial Durbin models to empirically analyse housing price fluctuations and financial risks transmission from a spatial economic perspective. Employing the panel provincial data from 1999–2015, we conduct an analysis on the 30 provinces in China as well as a comparison among the Eastern, Middle and Western regions of China. The results indicate that: (1) The soaring housing prices driven by bank credit, real estate developers’ heavy investment, local governments’ land revenue and individuals and households demands leads to financial risk in various sectors; (2) due to the ‘substitution effect’, the capital agglomeration in metropolis from bank credits, real estate developers, and individuals and households furthers the amassment of financial risks; (3) housing prices have a significant spatial contagion effect throughout the country, and financial risk could directly transmit across provinces through housing price fluctuations; (4) financial risks could indirectly transmit across provinces via the ‘imitative behaviour’ or ‘driving effect’ of different sectors for different regions of China.
第一作者：刘丰云
合写作者：任洪浩,刘传哲
论文类型：期刊论文
文献类型：J
卷号：51
期号：53
页面范围：5767-5780
是否译文：否
发表时间：2019-05-23
收录刊物：SSCI