影响因子：5.2
DOI码：10.1007/s11356-021-12801-4
关键字：Impact assessment, Gross domestic product (GDP), Urban damage, Flood protection, Flood risks management, Sustainable development
摘要：In recent years, flooding has not only disrupted social growth but has also hampered economic development. In many nations,
this global epidemic has affected lives, property, and financial damage. Pakistan has experienced many floods in the past several
years. Due to economic, social, and climate change, Pakistan is at risk of flooding. In order to overcome this problem, the
institutions of the country have taken various measures. However, these measures are not sufficient enough to ensure the safety of
communities and areas that are prone to disasters with a rapid onset. Hence, it is imperative to forecast future flood-related risks
and take necessary measures to mitigate the adverse impacts and losses caused by floods. This article is aimed at exploring floods
in Pakistan, analyze the adverse effects of floods on humans and the environment, and propose possible sustainable options for
the future. The aqueduct flood analyzer software was used to examine the impact of floods on gross domestic product (GDP),
urban damage, and people livelihood, with several years of flood protection plans. To adequately assess the future changes,
various flood protection levels and three scenarios for each level of protection were employed, which represent the socio economic and climate change. The findings revealed that if there is no flood protection, a 2-year flood has a 50% probability
of flood occurrence in any given area and may cause no significant impact on GDP, population, and urban damage. Similarly, the
probability of a flood occurrence in a five-year flood is 20%, which may cause the country’s GDP about $20.4 billion, with 8.4
million population at risk and $1.4 billion urban damage. Furthermore, a 10-year flood has a 10% probability of flood occurrence
and may affect the national GDP by $28.9 billion, with 11.9 million affected population and $2.4 billion urban damage in
Pakistan. The government of Pakistan should devise appropriate climate change policies, improve disaster preparedness, build
new dams, and update relevant departments to mitigate the adverse effects of flooding
论文类型：期刊论文
学科门类：经济学
是否译文：否
发表时间：2020-04-21
收录刊物：SCI