Machine learning detection of manipulative environmental disclosures in corporate reports
发布时间：2026-03-21点击次数：
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DOI码：10.1038/s41598-025-29621-y
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发表刊物：Scientific Reports
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关键字：Machine learning；Environmental information disclosure；Manipulative behavior detection；Corporate transparency；Data imbalance techniques
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摘要：Detecting manipulative environmental disclosures remains a critical yet unresolved challenge for regulators and investors. This study proposes a machine learning framework that integrates financial indicators, textual sentiment, and public attention data to identify potential manipulation among Chinese listed firms. A Random Forest model is trained using multi-source features derived from corporate reports and Baidu Index trends. The optimized model demonstrates strong discriminatory ability under severe class imbalance (ROC-AUC=0.94, PR-AUC=0.78, Balanced Accuracy=0.86, MCC=0.72), indicating robust and reliable performance across both majority and minority classes. Evaluation through balanced metrics further confirms the model's genuine predictive capacity rather than overfitting to training data. SHAP-based interpretation reveals that financial pressure, abnormal public attention, and sentiment deviation are the primary determinants of manipulation risk. Overall, the framework highlights how interpretable machine learning can strengthen data-driven environmental supervision. The findings are context-specific to the Chinese market due to reliance on Baidu-based indicators, warranting validation in other regulatory contexts in future research.
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是否译文：否
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发表时间：2025-11-22
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收录刊物：SCI
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李远哲
职务：Professor
主要任职：
个人信息
- 博士生导师
硕士生导师 - 教师英文名称：Yuanzhe
- 教师拼音名称：liyuanzhe
- 电子邮箱：
- 所在单位：碳中和研究院
- 职务：Professor
- 学历：博士研究生毕业
- 办公地点：中国矿业大学(文昌校区) 教三楼 碳中和研究院
- 性别：男
- 联系方式：yuanzhe.li@cumt.edu.cn
- 学位：哲学博士学位
- 毕业院校：Nanyang Technological University
学术荣誉：
- 2025当选：江苏特聘教授
曾获荣誉：
- 2023-12-27新加坡国家级范畴三（CSE3）半导体行业专家 & 碳税 主任审核员
- 2023-12-27新加坡经管局资源效率补助（REG(E)）减碳项目 主任验证审核员
- 2025-11-11净零路径 (NetZero Pathway) 主任验证审核员
- 2025-02-28Verra 碳排放信用 VCS 主任审核员
- 2024-12-02碳中和 ISO14068认证 主任审核员
- 2024-11-27可持续性保证（ACSAP）认证资格 (AA1000注册)
- 2025-09-01ISO14067 产品碳认证 外部主任审核员
- 2024-03-04ISO14064 温室气体排放与碳核查 外部主任审核员（ANAB注册验证）
- 2025-10-01ISO50001 能源管理体系外部主任审员
- 2024-05-13ISO45001 职业健康安全管理体系外部主任审员 (CQI & IRCA注册)
- 2024-04-01ISO14001 环境管理体系 外部主任审核员 (CQI & IRCA注册)
- 2017-09-18新加坡人力部注册安全官（WSHO）
- 2025-09-01江苏特聘教授
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