A Vector Auto Regression Model Applied to Real Estate Development Investment: A statistic analysis
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DOI码:10.3390/su8111082
发表刊物:Sustainability
关键字:Socioeconomic; Economic system dynamics; Real estate investment; Statistical analysis
摘要:This study analyzes the economic system dynamics of investment in real estate from mainly four participants in China. Local governments limit the supply of commercial and residential land to raise fiscal revenue, and expand debts by land mortgage to develop industrial zones and parks. Led by local government, banks and real estate development enterprises forge a coalition on real estate investment and facilitate real estate price appreciation. The above theoretical model is empirically evidenced with VAR (Vector Auto Regression) methodology. A panel VAR model shows that land leasing and real estate price appreciation positively affect local government general fiscal revenue. Additional VAR models find that bank credit in addition to private and foreign funds respectively have strong positive dynamic effects on housing prices. Housing prices also have a strong positive impact on speculation from private funds and hot money.
第一作者:刘丰云
合写作者:Shuji Matsuno,Reza Malekian,余劲,李志雄
论文类型:期刊论文
卷号:8
期号:11
是否译文:否
发表时间:2016-07-14
收录刊物:SCI、SSCI