Liu chuanzhe
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Housing Price Fluctuations and Financial Risk Transmission: A Spatial Economic Model

DOI number:10.1080/00036846.2019.1619025

Journal:Applied Economics

Key Words:Housing price; Financial risk; Spatial diffusion; Investment

Abstract:Financial risk derived from housing price fluctuations in China garnered much public concern recently. Based on the theoretical analyses of the transmission of financial risk from housing price fluctuations, this paper establishes panel spatial Durbin models to empirically analyse housing price fluctuations and financial risks transmission from a spatial economic perspective. Employing the panel provincial data from 1999–2015, we conduct an analysis on the 30 provinces in China as well as a comparison among the Eastern, Middle and Western regions of China. The results indicate that: (1) The soaring housing prices driven by bank credit, real estate developers’ heavy investment, local governments’ land revenue and individuals and households demands leads to financial risk in various sectors; (2) due to the ‘substitution effect’, the capital agglomeration in metropolis from bank credits, real estate developers, and individuals and households furthers the amassment of financial risks; (3) housing prices have a significant spatial contagion effect throughout the country, and financial risk could directly transmit across provinces through housing price fluctuations; (4) financial risks could indirectly transmit across provinces via the ‘imitative behaviour’ or ‘driving effect’ of different sectors for different regions of China.

First Author:Liu Fengyun

Co-author:任洪浩,Liu chuanzhe

Indexed by:Journal paper

Document Type:J



Page Number:5767-5780

Translation or Not:no

Date of Publication:2019-05-23

Included Journals:SSCI

Personal information

Supervisor of Doctorate Candidates
Supervisor of Master's Candidates

Date of Birth:1964-10-14


Date of Employment:1990-03-01


Education Level:With Certificate of Graduation for Doctorate Study

Business Address:江苏省徐州市大学路1号中国矿业大学经济管理学院


Contact Information:电话:13775889059 电子信箱 微信(854556337)



Academic Titles:经济管理学院副院长,校科研院副院长、社科处处长(兼)

Alma Mater:南京农业大学

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Academic Honor:

Participant of the Provincial Young and Middle-Aged Academic Leaders Program  2004  

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校师德模范  2008-09-01

徐州市师德先进个人  2009-09-30

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